Growing number of war-weary Ukrainians would reluctantly give up territory to save lives, 最近的调查显示

乌克兰总统, 弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基, 正在尽最大努力改变俄乌战争的态势. 他最近 进行了重大的内阁改组 in which he replaced no fewer than nine ministers, including his foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba. 宣布更改, Zelensky said he wanted his government to be “more active” in pressing for aid from its western allies.

这些内阁变动是在乌克兰推进其改革的同时发生的 库尔斯克州的进攻 在俄罗斯. Zelensky has said that holding some Russian territory will give Kyiv leverage for future territorial exchange negotiations with Russia.

尽管对泽伦斯基赌博的批评 增加了 as Ukraine’s position in the Donbas in the east of the country has deteriorated, seeing Ukrainian soldiers turn the table on Russia has undeniably given Ukrainians a morale boost.

乌克兰人需要这个. 随着战争的持续和代价的增加， 士气和公共卫生都受到了影响.

多年来，博彩平台推荐一直在追踪乌克兰人的情绪. In June and July 2024, in cooperation with the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (纪伊), 博彩平台推荐进行了一次电话民意调查,200 respondents representative of the adult population of government-controlled areas of Ukraine. 这是继10月10日的一项调查之后. 2022.

博彩平台推荐应该治疗 战时民调需谨慎. But our survey findings suggest people are worried about war weariness among their fellow Ukrainians. 它还表明，这一数字正在增长, 如果不愿意, 支持谈判和领土让步.

愿意妥协

Attitudes among Ukrainians toward territorial concessions have also started to shift—but only slightly. 自2014年以来，大多数人都反对放弃土地，但是 纪伊自己的定期综合调查 提供了越来越多的认识的证据, 现在有三分之一的乌克兰人都是这样, 领土上的让步可能是必要的.

2024年6月至7月，博彩平台推荐重复了去年10月提出的一个问题. 2022年的领土特许权，如下图所示. “All choices about what to do during this current Russian aggression have significant, 但是不同的, 成本. Knowing this, which of the following four choices should the Ukraine government take at this time?”

最大的变化是:在2022年, 71% of respondents supported the proposition to “continue opposing Russian aggression until all Ukrainian territory, 包括克里米亚, 是解放,但到了2024年，这一选项的支持率降至51%.

In 2022, just 11% agreed with “trying to reach an immediate ceasefire by both sides with conditions and starting intensive negotiations.到2024年，这一比例已增至31%.

但是人们看待这些选择的方式是不同的. Much depends on whether they have been displaced (though whether they lost family members or friends does not seem to make a difference), 他们是否担心乌克兰同胞的战争疲劳, 以及他们对西方的支持是乐观还是悲观.

在这场战争中，利害攸关的不仅仅是领土问题, 拯救生命, 确保乌克兰主权, 保护国家未来的安全. 纪伊自己最近的研究表明，在一个 假设的谈判场景, people’s views on the importance of preserving territorial integrity might depend on how any possible deal might safeguard other things they care about.

两年半以来，残酷的战争影响着每一天 乌克兰人的生活许多人(43%)认为这场战争至少还会持续一年. Most of the respondents in our survey had not been physically injured 在俄罗斯n violence (12% had), 但大约一半的人目睹了俄罗斯的暴力, 大多数人失去了亲密的家庭成员或朋友(62%). 大约三分之一的人被迫离开家园.

Consistent with an increasing number of reports, the survey shows growing recognition of war fatigue. Rather than asking directly about whether respondents felt this themselves, 博彩平台推荐询问乌克兰同胞是否对此感到担忧. 结果显示:58%的人担心“很多”，28%的人担心“一点”,而只有10%的人表示他们不担心战争疲劳.

While there are signs of war weariness among Ukraine’s western allies, our surveys show that Ukrainians are still broadly optimistic about continued western support, 尽管不如2022年10月. 约19%的人认为西方的支持将会增加(低于2022年的29%)。, 而35%的人认为它将保持不变(到2022年为41%). Almost a quarter (24%) believe it will continue but at a lower level than now (up from 16% in 2022), 13%的人认为不太可能持续下去(高于2022年的3%)。.

生与死

研究 from early on in the war showed that Ukrainians strongly preferred strategies that preserved the country’s political autonomy and restored the entirety 它的领土. 这是成立的, “even if making concessions would reduce projected civilian and military deaths, 或者未来三个月发生核打击的风险."

As the authors of the study pointed out: “Russian control of the government in Kyiv or of territories in the east would put the lives of many Ukrainians at risk, as it is well documented that Russia has committed widespread human rights violations in temporarily occupied territories.”

鉴于战争中不断累积的死亡人数, in our 2024 survey we designed a simple framing experiment that can give us an indication of whether considerations about loss of life may shape people’s views on negotiations. 博彩平台推荐询问了一半的受访者, 随机选择的, if they would accept that “Ukraine concede some of its territories to end the war”. 大约24%的人说是的.

对于另一半, we asked if they would accept that “Ukraine concede some of its territories to save lives and end the war.在这种情况下，34%的人说是的. So, if—rightly or wrongly—territorial concessions are associated with 拯救生命, 它增加了对他们的支持.

But when asked directly in the 2024 survey if they agreed with the statement “Russia should be allowed to control the territory it has occupied since 2022,90%的人不同意. So, while there is still majority—if diminished—support for fighting to restore full territorial integrity, 越来越多的人支持谈判.

What we also know from our surveys is th在re is very little evidence that Russia’s territorial annexations will ever have any legitimacy among Ukrainians.

约翰intuition 教授是在 地理系 在 博彩平台推荐. 他的合著者是 克里斯汀·M·巴克, a professor of political science and international relations at University College London, and 杰拉德Toal, a professor of government and international affairs at Virginia Tech.

本文转载自 谈话 在知识共享许可下. 读了 原文.